| Mississippi State Discussion: |
000
FXUS64 KJAN 082303 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SO WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON POPS TO
EXTEND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS UNTIL 01Z...THEN GO WITH
FORECAST EVENING POPS UNTIL 03Z. OTHERWISE THE REST OF FORECAST APPEARS
TO ON TRACK./17/
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...330 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE STATE
LINE WITH A 1021MB HIGH NORTH OF IT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT IT MAY HELP SAG THE STALLED FRONT CLOSER TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE
THE FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A CONVERGENCE
AXIS HAS SET UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG BUT WITH A TWO INCH PW
AIRMASS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED MOVING SOUTH...THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING NORTH
AND MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND WEAKEN OVER OUR REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HERMINE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED FRONT THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS AGAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN AND TOP OUT 92 TO 95F. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER 12Z MAV
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY NEARLY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER
OUR AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
WARM AND DRY AND LOOKS REASONABLE. WL NOT CARRY MENTION OF PCPN AND
WITH A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S AT MOST SITES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING AND KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 100. WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES FRIDAY...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 104. GUIDANCE LOWS
WERE CLOSE AND THE MAV WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
/22/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA PLUS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE CWA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE REGION
BECOMING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...WILL
CAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR AND WILL AFFECT GLH-GWO-GTR THROUGH 01Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING LEAVING GOOD FLYING WX OVRNGT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WL PERSIST THRU 08Z THU. IFR CONDS 09-13Z WL
BE PSBL ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDS ACROSS SW
MS AND NE LA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. /17/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 94 72 95 / 18 7 6 8
MERIDIAN 68 95 68 95 / 14 9 5 8
VICKSBURG 69 94 71 95 / 22 7 5 9
HATTIESBURG 70 95 71 96 / 10 8 6 12
NATCHEZ 71 94 72 93 / 19 11 6 10
GREENVILLE 71 93 72 95 / 30 25 13 10
GREENWOOD 70 93 71 95 / 29 24 11 11
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/19/17
000
FXUS64 KJAN 082037
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE STATE
LINE WITH A 1021MB HIGH NORTH OF IT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WAS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT IT MAY HELP SAG THE STALLED FRONT CLOSER TO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES BY THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. DESPITE
THE FRONT REMAINING NORTH OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...A CONVERGENCE
AXIS HAS SET UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND DAYTIME HEATING
HAS LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG BUT WITH A TWO INCH PW
AIRMASS AND VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT...MOST STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WERE NOTED MOVING SOUTH...THE STORMS WERE DRIFTING NORTH
AND MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL ONLY THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUED LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF OUR AREA. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND WEAKEN OVER OUR REGION. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
HERMINE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED FRONT THURSDAY TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS AGAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES
BUT MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN AND TOP OUT 92 TO 95F. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER 12Z MAV
TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY NEARLY FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE OVER
OUR AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE. GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
WARM AND DRY AND LOOKS REASONABLE. WL NOT CARRY MENTION OF PCPN AND
WITH A LITTLE MORE INSOLATION EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 90S AT MOST SITES. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 60S DURING PEAK HEATING AND KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR 100. WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING CLOSER TO 70 DEGREES FRIDAY...HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 104. GUIDANCE LOWS
WERE CLOSE AND THE MAV WAS GENERALLY ACCEPTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
/22/
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR AREA WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING EAST AND NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA PLUS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE CWA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE REGION
BECOMING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...WILL
CAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR AND WILL AFFECT GLH-GWO-GTR THROUGH 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY
WL WANE QUICKLY THIS EVENING LEAVING GOOD FLYING WX OVRNGT.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS WL PERSIST THRU 08Z THU. IFR CONDS 09-13Z WL
BE PSBL ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDS ACROSS SW
MS AND NE LA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH. /BK/22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 94 72 95 / 7 7 6 8
MERIDIAN 68 95 68 95 / 4 9 5 8
VICKSBURG 69 94 71 95 / 12 7 5 9
HATTIESBURG 70 95 71 96 / 7 8 6 12
NATCHEZ 71 94 72 93 / 14 11 6 10
GREENVILLE 71 93 72 95 / 21 25 13 10
GREENWOOD 70 93 71 95 / 16 24 11 11
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/19/BK
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081534
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS
SITUATED NORTHERN GULF COAST THAT WILL SHIFT WEST SLOWLY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALL FRONT NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE STATE LINE THAT MAY SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD OUR CWA TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE WAS NOTED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS HEADING TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
MOISTURE FROM HERMINE WAS CONTINUING TO SPREAD UP AND AROUND THE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED
FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ACTIVITY UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY FIVE DEGREES COOLER IN THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THIS MORNING DUE TO THE CLOUDS BUT AFTERNOON
HIGHS WERE LOOKING OK. THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED AROUND
GREENVILLE HAS BURNED OFF. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL PERSIST THRU THE DAY TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLD SHWRS/TS ACROSS AREAS W OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY WL WANE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING GOOD FLYING WX OVRNGT. IFR CONDS 09-13Z WL BE
PSBL ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDS ACROSS SW MS
AND NE LA. /BK/
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE BLENDED AMSU/SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT INDICATES PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES PRESENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
CIRCULATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS ALONG A
WEAKENING FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION...AND IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND OUTRUNS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND WITH
THE APPROACHING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT
AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES
WERE LOWERED A LITTLE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOCAL HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DELTA REGION WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE
PRESENT...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ELSEWHERE. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END
THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE NUDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS GIVEN
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVERAGE AND GREATER MOISTURE PRESENT.
FOR THURSDAY...NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AND NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHILE THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HERMINE MERGES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
OVER OKLAHOMA. A ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS THE
REMNANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE OF HERMINE IS PULLED AWAY FROM THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMING TREND WILL BE LIMITED...AS NWP
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. /COHEN/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP A FIRM GRIP ON CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW
AND MID 70S DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO PEAK
BETWEEN 100-105. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA PLUS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE CWA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE REGION
BECOMING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...WILL
CAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 71 94 71 / 18 12 11 7
MERIDIAN 94 67 96 68 / 14 11 11 7
VICKSBURG 92 70 94 71 / 22 14 12 8
HATTIESBURG 94 70 95 72 / 10 8 14 9
NATCHEZ 92 71 92 72 / 19 10 11 10
GREENVILLE 90 73 93 72 / 30 21 20 8
GREENWOOD 91 71 94 71 / 29 19 19 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/BK/COHEN/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 081231 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
731 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DELTA
REGION THIS MORNING...WHERE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A NARROW
DRY SLOT IN WHICH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE TEMPORARILY CLEARED
OUT. THE FOG HAS EARLIER REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE AT
GREENVILLE. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION FOR THIS MORNING.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 9 AM. /COHEN/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE BLENDED AMSU/SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES PRESENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH
REGION...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND OUTRUNS UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED A LITTLE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOCAL HIGH-
RES WRF GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WERE NUDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS
GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVERAGE AND GREATER MOISTURE PRESENT.
FOR THURSDAY...NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AND NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHILE THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HERMINE MERGES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
OVER OKLAHOMA. A ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS THE
REMNANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE OF HERMINE IS PULLED AWAY FROM THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMING TREND WILL BE LIMITED...AS NWP
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. /COHEN/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP A FIRM GRIP ON CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW
AND MID 70S DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO PEAK
BETWEEN 100-105. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA PLUS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE CWA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE REGION
BECOMING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...WILL
CAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO JACKSON TO NATCHEZ THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF SHOWER/STORMS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN IFR TO VLIFR VISIBILITIES
OVER THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION AND LOW-LEVEL STRATUS RESULTING IN
IFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL DISSIPATE BY
08/1400 UTC. ADDITIONALLY...PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN MVFR VISIBILITIES
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09/1000 UTC AND 09/1300 UTC.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH THE LOWEST
CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
EASTERLY AT 4 TO 7 KT TODAY. /COHEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 71 94 71 / 18 12 11 7
MERIDIAN 94 67 96 68 / 14 11 11 7
VICKSBURG 92 70 94 71 / 22 14 12 8
HATTIESBURG 94 70 95 72 / 10 8 14 9
NATCHEZ 92 71 92 72 / 19 10 11 10
GREENVILLE 90 73 93 72 / 30 21 20 8
GREENWOOD 91 71 94 71 / 29 19 19 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
COHEN/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080836
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 AM CDT WED SEP 8 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE...CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE BLENDED AMSU/SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES PWAT VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.2
INCHES PRESENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. PWAT VALUES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG A WEAKENING FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH
REGION...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MAKES FURTHER SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS TOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND OUTRUNS UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS...WITH ABUNDANT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE...AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF
MID/UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AND WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED A LITTLE BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LOCAL HIGH-
RES WRF GUIDANCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION WHERE THE GREATEST CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE PRESENT...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 90S ELSEWHERE. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WERE NUDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS
GIVEN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVERAGE AND GREATER MOISTURE PRESENT.
FOR THURSDAY...NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AND NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WHILE THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF HERMINE MERGES WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
OVER OKLAHOMA. A ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT
WILL MAINTAIN PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY...WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS THE
REMNANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE OF HERMINE IS PULLED AWAY FROM THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON THURSDAY THAN TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FOR
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMING TREND WILL BE LIMITED...AS NWP
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SUGGEST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. /COHEN/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP A FIRM GRIP ON CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN A BIT
OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCES FOR RAIN...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH THE LOW
AND MID 70S DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO PEAK
BETWEEN 100-105. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING EAST AND NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONT INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO OVER THE
AREA PLUS THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE CWA...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...ACCOMPANIED BY THE REGION
BECOMING POSITIONED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST...WILL
CAUSE NORTHERLY FLOW TO SETUP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRIER CONDITIONS TO
EXIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /19/
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN TO JACKSON TO NATCHEZ THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION OF SHOWER/STORMS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. ALSO...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
THROUGH 08/1300 UTC AND BETWEEN 09/1000 UTC AND 09/1300 UTC.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVERAGE WITH CLOUD BASES
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY AT
4 TO 7 KT TODAY. /COHEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 94 71 94 71 / 18 12 11 7
MERIDIAN 94 67 96 68 / 14 11 11 7
VICKSBURG 92 70 94 71 / 22 14 12 8
HATTIESBURG 94 70 95 72 / 10 8 14 9
NATCHEZ 92 71 92 72 / 19 10 11 10
GREENVILLE 90 73 93 72 / 30 21 20 8
GREENWOOD 91 71 94 71 / 29 19 19 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
COHEN/19
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080321 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1021 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGE ASSOCIATED
WITH HERMINE IN CENTRAL TX ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO CONTRACT WWD FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PERSISTENT STORMS ACROSS NRN
MS HAS DROPPED INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR AND WILL HELP KEEP SHRA
GOING OVERNIGHT FOR MAINLY THE DELTA COUNTIES. WE ALREADY HAVE SOME
RADAR ESTIMATES OF 2-3 INCHES BETWEEN SHAW AND DREW MS AS WELL AS
FROM BERLIN TO WILMOT AR...WHILE MOST OTHER SPOTS HAVE BEEN IN THE
0.5 INCH OR LESS RANGE. PWATS WERE AMAZINGLY STABLE DURING THE PAST
12-18 HOURS WITH 1.73 INCHES AT KJAN. THE BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS
PWATS OF 2 INCHES PLUS COVERING ALL AREAS W OF I-55. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY GRIDS FOR TEMPS POPS AND SKY COVERS WITH NO
OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED./40/
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WL CONTINUE OVER NWRN SECTIONS OF THE
CWFA UNTIL ABOUT 06Z BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
MOSTLY SHRA BY 07-08Z. VFR CONDS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT MORE IFR CIG/VSBY WL BE PSBL AT HBG/JAN/MEI 10-14Z IN THE
MORNING. VFR CLOUD LAYERS ABOVE 6K FEET ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD TOUGH
FOR MOST OF REGION AS MOISTURE FROM HERMINE SPILLS IN FROM THE W.
AFTER 16Z...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED
AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS DRIER AIR BEGINS
RETURNING FROM THE ESE. MOST OF OUR RAINS SHOULD COME TO AN END EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HERMINE HEADS INTO THE WRN OZARKS. /40/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
HAS A 594DM HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. TOGETHER THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN OUR
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY SHIFT BACK
WEST OVER OUR REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SITES IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT MOST SITES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK NEAR
100 EACH AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE STALLED COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER OUR CWA. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE STALLED FRONT MAY SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT...WL GO WITH THE VERY
LIMITED GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ONLY KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 73 95 70 95 / 8 10 7 9
MERIDIAN 69 95 67 96 / 7 7 7 8
VICKSBURG 71 94 69 95 / 20 15 7 9
HATTIESBURG 72 96 70 96 / 7 7 8 10
NATCHEZ 73 93 71 94 / 17 17 8 9
GREENVILLE 72 93 71 96 / 23 28 12 15
GREENWOOD 71 94 70 96 / 14 26 12 16
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 080017 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATING SOME TROPICAL DOWNPOURS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DELTA REGION FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS SEVERAL
CELL MERGERS TAKE PLACE ALONG A CLEVELAND TO BASTROP LINE. HAVE
BOOSTED THE POPS IN THOSE AREAS WITH QPF POSSIBLY REACHING ONE
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS COULD
EASILY REACH AROUND ONE INCH WHERE STRONGER STORMS PERSIST FOR MORE
THAN 30 MINUTES OR SO. THE OUTER CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE
HAS EXPANDED ALL THE WAY TO THE MS RIVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHTFOR THOSE AREAS. WILL REVISIT INCLUDING SOME
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA ON THE NEXT
UPDATE ONCE THE DAYTIME HEATING IS EXHAUSTED./40/
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WL CONTINUE OVER WRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWFA UNTIL ABOUT 03Z THIS EVENING BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN TO MOSTLY SHRA BY 05Z. VFR CONDS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT MORE IFR CIG/VSBY WL BE PSBL AT HBG/JAN/MEI 10-14Z
IN THE MORNING. VFR CLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER 14Z.
AFTER 16Z...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED THAN
TODAY AND OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE NW PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AS DRIER AIR
BEGINS RETURNING FROM THE ESE. /40/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
HAS A 594DM HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. TOGETHER THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN OUR
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY SHIFT BACK
WEST OVER OUR REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED TO OUR CWA WITH A PW NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WERE FUELING THE CONVECTION. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT
THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EAST BUT DUE TO T.S.
HERMINE OVER TEXAS...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
OUR WEST. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST AS TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S BUT SITES IN THE WEST SHOULD SEE LOWER
70S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SITES IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT MOST SITES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK NEAR
100 EACH AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE STALLED COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER OUR CWA. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE STALLED FRONT MAY SAG A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN BUT...WL GO WITH THE VERY
LIMITED GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ONLY KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY ELSEWHERE. /22/
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH STRONG WESTERLIES
CROSSING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WESTERLIES WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...BUT THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE HEAT STRESS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN
THE AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THE GFS MOS SEEMED A
HAIR TOO HOT GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOS IS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
LATER THIS WEEK...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
WE EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAINS ~1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
GREAT DUE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 1500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
/EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 72 95 70 95 / 9 10 7 9
MERIDIAN 68 95 67 96 / 7 7 7 8
VICKSBURG 70 94 69 95 / 17 15 7 9
HATTIESBURG 71 96 70 96 / 8 7 8 10
NATCHEZ 72 93 71 94 / 18 17 8 9
GREENVILLE 72 93 71 96 / 50 28 12 15
GREENWOOD 70 94 70 96 / 24 26 12 16
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KJAN 072023
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
HAS A 594DM HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWING A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE
OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY. TOGETHER THESE HIGHS WILL REMAIN OUR
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THEY SHIFT BACK
WEST OVER OUR REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER
TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT. THERE WERE A FEW
SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INCLUDING SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. MOISTURE HAS
RETURNED TO OUR CWA WITH A PW NEAR AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WERE FUELING THE CONVECTION. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TONIGHT THE SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EAST BUT DUE TO
T.S. HERMINE OVER TEXAS...MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER OUR WEST. NEAR NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EAST AS
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S BUT SITES IN THE WEST
SHOULD SEE LOWER 70S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SITES IN THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL PEAK NEAR 100 EACH AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH
NORTH OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER OUR CWA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE STALLED FRONT MAY SAG
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN GREATER CHANCES
FOR RAIN BUT...WL GO WITH THE VERY LIMITED GUIDANCE POPS FOR NOW AND
ONLY KEEP MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL
BE DRY ELSEWHERE. /22/
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH STRONG WESTERLIES
CROSSING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WESTERLIES WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...BUT THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE HEAT STRESS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN
THE AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT
INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THE GFS MOS SEEMED A
HAIR TOO HOT GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOS IS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY
LATER THIS WEEK...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
WE EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAINS ~1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
GREAT DUE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 1500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
/EC/
&&
.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHWRS/TS WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-55 THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. VFR CONDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BUT MORE IFR CIG/VSBY WL BE PSBL AT HBG/JAN/MEI
TOMORROW MORNING. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME AFTER 14Z THU.
AFTN SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY
AND OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE NW. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 72 95 70 95 / 10 10 7 9
MERIDIAN 68 95 67 96 / 7 7 7 8
VICKSBURG 70 94 69 95 / 17 15 7 9
HATTIESBURG 71 96 70 96 / 8 7 8 10
NATCHEZ 72 93 71 94 / 19 17 8 9
GREENVILLE 72 93 71 96 / 19 28 12 15
GREENWOOD 70 94 70 96 / 16 26 12 16
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/EC/22
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071550
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT CENTERED EAST OF OUR CWA
WAS TRYING TO HANG STOUT THIS MORNING BUT THE MOISTURE HAS RETURNED
TO OUR AREA IN EARNEST. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING 15 TO 20
DEGREES HIGHER THIS MORNING THAN ON MONDAY. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
LED TO SOME FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT
HAS SINCE BURNED OFF BUT...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM LAUREL TO GREENWOOD TO CLEVELAND. REGIONAL
RADARS WERE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS JUST WEST OF OUR PARISHES BUT HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE WEST UNTIL AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING FASTER THAN
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST DUE TO GREATER INSOLATION THIS MORNING.
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKED ON TRACK THERE BUT HAVE UPDATED TO
FORECAST TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER OUR
NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD HOLD SITES JUST SHORT OF THE
LOWER 90S. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...FOG/LOW CIGS ARE SLOW TO BURN OFF THIS MORNING AT JAN
AND HBG...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD BY 16Z. VFR CONDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THRU THE DAY TODAY ALL AREAS. A FEW SHWRS/TS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WEST OF I-55 THIS AFTN BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. VFR OVRNGT WITH MORE IFR CIG/VSBY PSBL
AT HBG/JAN/MEI TOMORROW MORNING. /BK/
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. WITH A LACK OF FORCING
OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS
DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
ON WEDNESDAY...A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES IN THE PROCESS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TRYING TO SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY...WHETHER IT
MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH OR NOT ...ISN`T EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH...
IF ANY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD SNEAK INTO THE REGION. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WILL AGAIN BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THROUGH THE PERIOD...I
STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN BOTH REGARDS. WITH LOWS GENERALLY
FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT...HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S. /19/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH STRONG WESTERLIES CROSSING
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WESTERLIES WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS...BUT THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE HEAT STRESS...ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN
THE AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES
IN THE 100-105 RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THE GFS MOS SEEMED A HAIR TOO
HOT GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOS IS SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY LATER THIS
WEEK...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
WE EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAINS ~1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
GREAT DUE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 1500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
/EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 71 94 71 / 29 18 8 7
MERIDIAN 94 68 95 67 / 11 13 5 6
VICKSBURG 92 70 93 70 / 43 25 16 11
HATTIESBURG 93 72 95 70 / 16 11 9 7
NATCHEZ 92 71 92 71 / 49 22 20 12
GREENVILLE 90 71 92 72 / 53 27 27 14
GREENWOOD 91 71 93 70 / 41 24 21 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
22/BK/19/EC
000
FXUS64 KJAN 071217 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.UPDATE...GOING TO DO A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ADD THE
METION OF FOG ACROSS THE JACKSON METRO AREA AS WELL AS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID MORNING. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010/
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. WITH A LACK OF FORCING OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION
WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
ON WEDNESDAY...A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES IN THE PROCESS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TRYING TO SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY...WHETHER IT
MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH OR NOT ...ISN`T EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH...
IF ANY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD SNEAK INTO THE REGION. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WILL AGAIN BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THROUGH THE PERIOD...I
STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN BOTH REGARDS. WITH LOWS GENERALLY
FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT...HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S. /19/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
STRONG WESTERLIES CROSSING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
NATION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERLIES WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT STRESS...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THE GFS
MOS SEEMED A HAIR TOO HOT GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOS IS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEK...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
WE EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAINS ~1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
GREAT DUE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 1500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING DUE
TO SOME FOG. THESE VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
STATUS BY 14Z. MEANWHILE...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11-14Z AROUND 1000 FEET. VFR CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE BY 16Z...BUT THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL
ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55...DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO EXIST AT SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 71 94 71 / 29 18 8 7
MERIDIAN 94 68 95 67 / 11 13 5 6
VICKSBURG 93 70 93 70 / 43 25 16 11
HATTIESBURG 95 72 95 70 / 16 11 9 7
NATCHEZ 92 71 92 71 / 49 22 20 12
GREENVILLE 92 71 92 72 / 53 27 27 14
GREENWOOD 92 71 93 70 / 41 24 21 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
19/EC
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070914
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
414 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER LOCATIONS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR. WITH A LACK OF FORCING OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION
WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
ON WEDNESDAY...A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER
WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA WHILE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES IN THE PROCESS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE...SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TRYING TO SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY...WHETHER IT
MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH OR NOT ...ISN`T EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MUCH...
IF ANY...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD SNEAK INTO THE REGION. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY WILL AGAIN BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED THROUGH THE PERIOD...I
STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN BOTH REGARDS. WITH LOWS GENERALLY
FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT...HIGHS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
TOP OUT IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 90S. /19/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
STRONG WESTERLIES CROSSING NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
NATION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WESTERLIES WILL BE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONT TO IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS...BUT THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT STRESS...ESPECIALLY
FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND AS THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...THE GFS
MOS SEEMED A HAIR TOO HOT GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MOS IS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. WHILE IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE NECESSARY LATER THIS WEEK...IT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.
WE EXPECT SMALL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAINS ~1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
GREAT DUE TO THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MIXED LAYER CAPE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 1500 J/KG. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SATURDAY WHEN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 10-13Z
THIS MORNING DUE TO SOME PATCHY FOG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST...KGTR...KMEI...AND KHBG. THESE VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 14Z. MEANWHILE...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN A SOUTH SOUTHEAST WIND WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 11-14Z AROUND 1000
FEET. VFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE BY 16Z...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
55...DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES TO EXIST AT SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY DUE
TO PATCHY FOG AND/OR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 93 71 94 71 / 29 18 8 7
MERIDIAN 94 68 95 67 / 11 13 5 6
VICKSBURG 93 70 93 70 / 43 25 16 11
HATTIESBURG 95 72 95 70 / 16 11 9 7
NATCHEZ 92 71 92 71 / 49 22 20 12
GREENVILLE 92 71 92 72 / 53 27 27 14
GREENWOOD 92 71 93 70 / 41 24 21 13
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
19/EC/
000
FXUS64 KJAN 070158 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
858 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
.UPDATE...EVENING RAOBS SHOWED A DOUBLING OF OUR AIRMASS PWATS TO
ALMOST 1.7 INCHES DURING LABOR DAY AS SUMMER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MADE
A RATHER SMOOTH RETURN TO THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW TSRA OVER SWRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE AXIS OF SHRA ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
PROGRESSED STEADILY NWD AND FINALLY DISSIPATED ALONG A BASTROP TO
LAKE PROVIDENCE TO TERRY TO PRENTISS LINE BEFORE 800 PM. DRIER AIR
ALOFT PERSISTS OVER NERN MS WHERE PWATS STILL JUST NEAR 1 INCH. PWATS
ALONG THE COAST HAVE RESURGED TO 2 INCHES OR BETTER AND THE BLENDED
TPW SATELLITE IMAGES NOW SHOWING THAT DEEPER MOISTURE LAYER HAS
PROGRESSED UP THE MS RIVER INTO SERN AR. A LIGHT SSELY FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL STRATUS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS OUR SRN AND WRN PORTIONS.
EXPECT A DRY NIGHT IN THE POP DEPARTMENT BUT WILL INTRODUCE SOME
POTENTIAL SUNRISE LIGHT SHRA IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME MAINLY W
OF THE MS RIVER. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SPILL INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MUCH OF
THIS CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE DIRECT OUTFLOW FROM HERMINE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TURNING NWD THROUGH CENTRAL TX. HOURLY
GRIDS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FOR CURRENT TRENDS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN
TEMPS FOR OUR SWRN CWFA WHERE READINGS ALREADY IN THE M70S FROM
EARLIER SHRA ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED./40/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 09Z TUE AS CLOUDS/SHRA HAVE JUST ABOUT ALL DISSIPATED WITH
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
10Z TUE...MAINLY SRN TWO THIRDS WHERE DEWPOINTS RUNNING 10-20F HIGHER
THAN THEY WERE SUNDAY EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WEST SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SSE WIND WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPING 11-14Z
AROUND 1K FEET. VFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL RESUME TUESDAY AREAWIDE BY 16Z BUT
THE CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY W OF I-55 AFTER 20Z OR SO. /40/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT COOL
AND UNSEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS IS ONGOING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND ADVECTS GREATER MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR
INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS WEEK. ON TUESDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE
55. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM HERMINE CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM TAKES IT ON A NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS... KEEPING IT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...A PLUME OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING WELL TO THE
EAST OF HERMINE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS RISING INTO THE 2.0 TO 2.2-INCH RANGE. THE
GREATEST MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AFTER NWP GUIDANCE HAD
ORIGINALLY TRENDED UPWARD YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO THE TUESDAY PRECIP
CHANCES...IT HAS TRENDED BACK DOWNWARD FOR THIS CYCLE. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO LIMITATIONS ON HOW FAR EAST THE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL
EXTEND INTO THE CWA WHILE CIRCULATING AROUND A BUILDING MID/UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEVERTHELESS...LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55 WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE EAST MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
HERMINE PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AND WITH ANY
SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER FORCING MECHANISMS EXPECTED TO BE
ABSENT...GREATER COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A DIURNAL CYCLE IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
FORCING...WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING DURING THE EVENING.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE
WILL BE ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL TRAVERSE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL WEAK ASCENT AND
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. PRECIP CHANCES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL END DURING THE EVENING AS ANY FORCING TRANSLATES
NORTHWARD AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW
DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE. /COHEN/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 71 92 71 93 / 2 24 19 24
MERIDIAN 66 93 68 94 / 2 14 14 14
VICKSBURG 71 91 70 93 / 15 34 25 28
HATTIESBURG 71 94 72 95 / 3 24 14 14
NATCHEZ 72 90 71 91 / 17 44 22 24
GREENVILLE 72 91 73 91 / 8 35 24 41
GREENWOOD 69 92 71 91 / 2 24 24 34
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
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